Bitcoin bull cycle enters ‘late phase’ as profit-taking metrics spike

Glassnode warns that Bitcoin profit-taking behavior mirrors past bull market cycle peaks. Should investors expect more all-time highs?

• Glassnode data flags Bitcoin’s profit-taking metrics as a late bull market cycle signal.
• Bitcoin capital inflows have weakened, and large profit-taking has peaked since BTC hit $124,000, but a new all-time high could arrive in two to three months.
• New and short-term holders are accumulating, offsetting the sell pressure.

Bitcoin has slipped nearly 9% since hitting $124,000, with weaker capital inflows accompanying the decline. BTC realized cap’s growth peaked at just 6% per month in recent weeks, compared to 13% during the $100,000 breakout in late 2024.

Profit-taking volumes have also softened. Glassnode observed that the most recent ATH attempt saw realized profit-taking fall well below the spikes seen at $70,000, $100,000, and $122,000. Despite this, realized losses remain moderate at $112 million per day, well within historical norms for local corrections.

Market sentiment has turned more negative since Bitcoin fell below $114,000, but analysts note fear levels have not yet reached capitulation.

At the same time, whales continue accumulating, with wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC, adding over 56,000 coins since late August. Exchange balances also dropped by more than 31,000 BTC in the past month, reducing near-term selling pressure.